New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact ~~Minimal~~→Minor ~~Minor~~→Moderate Significant ~~Severe~~→Extreme

Likelihood ~~Very low~~→Low ~~Low~~→Medium ~~Medium~~→High ~~High~~→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement

Issued at

Monday 05 Oct 2026, 10:30 BST

Overall flood risk Very Low

Highest impact Minor

picture_as_pdf PDF table_chart CSV

ID: 4910

campaign Headline

The overall flood risk for England and Wales for the next five days is VERY LOW.

format_list_bulleted Breakdown by source

Source	Overall flood risk	Highest impact	Summary
River	Very Low	Minor	The river flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.
Surface Water	Very Low	Minor	The surface water flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.
Groundwater	Very Low	Minor	The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.
Coastal/Tidal	Very Low	Minor	The coastal/tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days.

calendar_month 6-10 Day Forecast

nan

update Next issue due: Tuesday 06 October at 10:30 BST

Last 90 Days

91 Items

Date & Time	Overall flood risk	River	Surface	Ground	Coastal	Highest impact	Actions

Mon 05 Oct 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 04 Oct 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 03 Oct 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 02 Oct 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 01 Oct 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 30 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 29 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 28 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 27 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 26 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 25 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 24 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 23 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 22 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 21 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 20 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 19 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 18 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 17 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 16 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 15 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 14 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 13 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 12 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 11 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 10 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 09 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 08 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 07 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 06 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 05 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 04 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 03 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 02 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 01 Sep 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 31 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 30 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 29 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 28 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 27 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Significant	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 26 Aug 2026 17:00 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Significant	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 26 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Significant	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 25 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Significant	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 24 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 23 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 22 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 21 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 20 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 19 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Low	VL	L	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 18 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 17 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 16 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 15 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 14 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 13 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 12 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 11 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 10 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 09 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 08 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 07 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 06 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 05 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 04 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 03 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 02 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 01 Aug 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 31 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 30 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 29 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 28 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 27 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 26 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 25 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 24 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 23 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 22 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 21 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 20 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 19 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minor	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 18 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 17 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 16 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 15 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Tue 14 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Mon 13 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sun 12 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Sat 11 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Fri 10 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Thu 09 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV
Wed 08 Jul 2026 10:30 BST	Very Low	VL	VL	VL	VL	Minimal	picture_as_pdf PDF grid_on CSV

About the Flood Guidance Statement

The Flood Guidance Statement is issued every day by the Flood Forecasting Centre, a partnership of the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It sets out the risk of flooding across England and Wales over the next five days from four sources: rivers, surface water, groundwater and the sea.

Each risk is very low, low, medium or high, and combines how likely flooding is with how severe its impacts could be. The statement is written for emergency responders; for flood warnings where you live, use the GOV.UK flood warning service in England or Natural Resources Wales in Wales.

Every statement is kept in the archive, and the calendars and statistics show how often each level of risk has been reached.

New names on the impact matrix