New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact Minimal→Minor Minor→Moderate Significant Severe→Extreme
Likelihood Very low→Low Low→Medium Medium→High High→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement, 03 October 2026

Issued at
Saturday 03 Oct 2026, 10:30 BST
Overall flood risk Very Low
Highest impact Minor
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ID: 4908
Flood Risk Map

campaign Headline

Isolated moderate surface water flooding impacts are possible but not expected for parts of England today (Saturday). However, the overall flood risk for England and Wales is VERY LOW for the next five days.

format_list_bulleted Breakdown by source

Source Overall flood risk Highest impact
River Very Low Minor
Surface Water Very Low Minor
Groundwater Very Low Minor
Coastal/Tidal Very Low Minor

About the Flood Guidance Statement

The Flood Guidance Statement is issued every day by the Flood Forecasting Centre, a partnership of the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It sets out the risk of flooding across England and Wales over the next five days from four sources: rivers, surface water, groundwater and the sea.

Each risk is very low, low, medium or high, and combines how likely flooding is with how severe its impacts could be. The statement is written for emergency responders; for flood warnings where you live, use the GOV.UK flood warning service in England or Natural Resources Wales in Wales.

Every statement is kept in the archive, and the calendars and statistics show how often each level of risk has been reached.