New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact ~~Minimal~~→Minor ~~Minor~~→Moderate Significant ~~Severe~~→Extreme

Likelihood ~~Very low~~→Low ~~Low~~→Medium ~~Medium~~→High ~~High~~→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement comparison

How the five-day flood risk picture for England and Wales changed between issues

Loading statements…

Reference issue

verifiedLatest scheduleAwaiting today's statement

Compare against

Difference

Upgraded in the later issue Downgraded in the later issue No change

Detail

County changes

Show unchanged

Matrix cells show impact then likelihood, e.g. "Mod/Med" is Moderate impact at Medium likelihood.

Matrix summary

County-days per matrix position

Data: Flood Forecasting Centre Flood Guidance Statement, per-county five-day export, archived on each issue (~10:30 UK daily, occasionally twice a day). Columns are aligned by valid date, so each day of the later issue sits directly beneath the same day of the earlier one. Comparisons need at least two overlapping days.

Flood risk: Flood Guidance Statement produced by the Flood Forecasting Centre (a Met Office and Environment Agency partnership). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
County boundaries: ONS, Open Government Licence v3.0.

New names on the impact matrix

Flood Guidance Statement comparison

verifiedLatest scheduleAwaiting today's statement

County changes

County-days per matrix position

ID: --

Headline

Situation Summary

River

Surface Water

Coastal/Tidal

Groundwater

Select Statement

River levels for England, Wales and Scotland

Compare any model against radar, with a full-page chart

Leave out unreliable rain gauges

About Flood Forecast

OK to use analytics cookies?

Cookie preferences