New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact Minimal→Minor Minor→Moderate Significant Severe→Extreme
Likelihood Very low→Low Low→Medium Medium→High High→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement, 05 February 2026

Issued at
Thursday 05 Feb 2026, 10:30 GMT
Overall flood risk Medium
Highest impact Significant
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ID: 4656
Flood Risk Map

campaign Headline

Significant groundwater flooding impacts are probable in Dorset and Wiltshire, with significant inland flooding impacts possible but not expected in Somerset from today (Thursday). The overall flood risk is MEDIUM. See 6-10 day section.

format_list_bulleted Breakdown by source

Source Overall flood risk Highest impact
River Low Significant
Surface Water Low Moderate
Groundwater Medium Significant
Coastal/Tidal Low Moderate

calendar_month 6-10 Day Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue with further low pressure systems from the southwest. Areas that have seen the most rainfall recently are those most likely to see further heavy rain during this period. This could lead to significant inland flooding impacts at times.

About the Flood Guidance Statement

The Flood Guidance Statement is issued every day by the Flood Forecasting Centre, a partnership of the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It sets out the risk of flooding across England and Wales over the next five days from four sources: rivers, surface water, groundwater and the sea.

Each risk is very low, low, medium or high, and combines how likely flooding is with how severe its impacts could be. The statement is written for emergency responders; for flood warnings where you live, use the GOV.UK flood warning service in England or Natural Resources Wales in Wales.

Every statement is kept in the archive, and the calendars and statistics show how often each level of risk has been reached.