New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact Minimal→Minor Minor→Moderate Significant Severe→Extreme
Likelihood Very low→Low Low→Medium Medium→High High→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement, 05 November 2025

Issued at
Wednesday 05 Nov 2025, 10:30 GMT
Overall flood risk Low
Highest impact Moderate
picture_as_pdf PDF table_chart CSV
ID: 4519
Flood Risk Map

campaign Headline

Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected in the South West of England today and Thursday morning, and possible more widely today and Thursday. Minor river flooding impacts are probable in parts of South West Wales today. The overall flood risk is LOW.

format_list_bulleted Breakdown by source

Source Overall flood risk Highest impact
River Low Moderate
Surface Water Very Low Minor
Groundwater Very Low Minor
Coastal/Tidal Low Moderate

About the Flood Guidance Statement

The Flood Guidance Statement is issued every day by the Flood Forecasting Centre, a partnership of the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It sets out the risk of flooding across England and Wales over the next five days from four sources: rivers, surface water, groundwater and the sea.

Each risk is very low, low, medium or high, and combines how likely flooding is with how severe its impacts could be. The statement is written for emergency responders; for flood warnings where you live, use the GOV.UK flood warning service in England or Natural Resources Wales in Wales.

Every statement is kept in the archive, and the calendars and statistics show how often each level of risk has been reached.