New names on the impact matrix

October 2026

The Flood Forecasting Centre, the Met Office and the UK's environment agencies now share one impact matrix, so flood guidance and weather warnings use the same words.

Impact Minimal→Minor Minor→Moderate Significant Severe→Extreme
Likelihood Very low→Low Low→Medium Medium→High High→Very high

Colours and overall flood risk levels are unchanged. This site uses the new names throughout, but the text inside older statements keeps the words used when it was issued.

Flood Guidance Statement, 15 February 2020

Issued at
Saturday 15 Feb 2020, 10:30 GMT
Overall flood risk Medium
Highest impact Extreme
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ID: 1330
Flood Risk Map

campaign Headline

Severe river flooding is possible in the south of Wales on Saturday and Sunday due to Storm Dennis. Significant river and surface water flooding is probable in other areas. The overall flood risk is MEDIUM. See end of FGS for 6-10 day forecast.

format_list_bulleted Breakdown by source

Source Overall flood risk Highest impact
River Medium Extreme
Surface Water Medium Significant
Groundwater Very Low Minor
Coastal/Tidal Very Low Moderate

calendar_month 6-10 Day Forecast

On-going river flooding impacts may continue into later next week on the largest rivers. Further unsettled weather is expected then and into the following weekend too. Given saturated conditions are likely to be widespread, renewed river and surface water flooding impacts are possible.

About the Flood Guidance Statement

The Flood Guidance Statement is issued every day by the Flood Forecasting Centre, a partnership of the Environment Agency and the Met Office. It sets out the risk of flooding across England and Wales over the next five days from four sources: rivers, surface water, groundwater and the sea.

Each risk is very low, low, medium or high, and combines how likely flooding is with how severe its impacts could be. The statement is written for emergency responders; for flood warnings where you live, use the GOV.UK flood warning service in England or Natural Resources Wales in Wales.

Every statement is kept in the archive, and the calendars and statistics show how often each level of risk has been reached.